Do top prize counts on Scratch-its actually reveal anything?
Interesting approach logging the remaining division one count before each slap. I've started doing something similar, mostly because the printed prize table on the back of every Instant Scratch-its ticket is only half the story. A game can still show three grand prizes "available" when the reality is all three were claimed in Perth six weeks ago and the lottery just hasn't refreshed the listing. Since it's a national game, the same title sits in every newsagent from here to Cairns, so the tickets sold up north drain the same prize pool you're buying into down the road.
What I'd love to know from your data: does the remaining top prize count actually shift your expected value, or does it just change where the variance sits? My hunch is the hit rate on the small divisions stays fixed regardless, so you're really tracking how fat the right tail still is. 📊 Keep posting the numbers, I'll bring my own notes along and we can compare whether the picture holds across different price points.
Volatility > vibes.
back in the day I used to count the queens left on a Queen of the Nile bank in the club, so this logging habit of yours makes sense to me 😄 half the story is right, with scratchies the printed table says nothing about how many tickets were actually sold. and remember these things go nationwide, same title sitting in every newsagent from here to Cairns, so some other punter two states away could grab the last division one before you've even left the counter. still, better to check than buy blind.
I remember the old slots first-hand.
Darwin, the lotteries site publishes how many top prizes are left in each Instant Scratch-its game, you just look your title up and check the count before you have a slap. So if a $5 scratchie started with say four division ones and the site shows two gone, that tells you something... though with a national game sold at every newsagent from here to Broome, thousands of tickets might already be out the door and you've no idea how many. It's a dud meter more than a crystal ball 😉 ah well, we grind on
Gotta love that it's national too, same title sitting behind the counter at every newsagent from here to Perth, so one lucky bugger on the other side of the country can take the last division one before you've even bought your ticket 😅 That's the bit I reckon the logging can't fix, you're competing with the whole country for those top prizes!
Gotta love that it's national too, same title sitting behind the counter at every newsagent from here to Perth, so one lucky bugger on the other side of the country can take the last division one before you've even bough…
@DiamondWin yeah that's the killer bit aye, bloke in Perth can pinch the last one while you're still in the queue at Maroochydore 😂 still reckon the count's worth a squiz before buying, gives me at least a fighting chance. Give me Lightning Link any day though, at least you know that jackpot's still sitting there waiting 🤑🎰
A fighting chance at what mate, watching the count tick down while your tucker goes cold? 😏 The count tells you exactly one thing, how many punters before you already copped the top prize. But sure, keep squizzing it, whatever makes the queue feel lucky. So where's the profit? 💸
The house always wins.
@Maccas_Legend508 I check the count for the same reason I read wagering terms before grabbing a bonus, costs nothing and stops you buying into a top prize some bloke in Perth copped yesterday. Doesn't lift the odds on your actual ticket one bit though. I set an A$20 scratchie budget same as a pokie session, ticket hits or it doesn't, and when the budget's gone I walk 💸
Bankroll discipline wins 💸
That DiamondWin point hit me harder than I expected 😅 I only started having a slap on scratchies a couple months back and I already noticed the same thing, you can check the division one count on your phone right before buying, then some punter in WA grabs the last top prize while you're queuing at the newsagent. Maybe I'm being dumb but I still check anyway, feels better than going in blind.
I keep it simple though, just look up the title before my Saturday slaps and if the top prizes are all gone I pick a different one. Knowing only half the story beats knowing nothing I reckon 🙂 cheers to whoever explained where the counts actually live, that helped a lot.
Asking dumb bonus questions — that's the job.
Honestly even with two division ones left I still get the feels queuing up 😂 reckon the count just makes the slap more fun... keep logging it lads 🔥
Honestly even with two division ones left I still get the feels queuing up 😂 reckon the count just makes the slap more fun... keep logging it lads 🔥
@SteveCobber fun is fine, but two left nationally means bugger-all for your local newsagent. I'll believe a top prize's still live when someone posts a paid cheque, not before.
Cashout screenshot or it didn't happen.
Same discipline I use clearing bonuses: check the count, it costs nothing. Doesn't change your ticket's odds though 💸
Same discipline I use clearing bonuses: check the count, it costs nothing. Doesn't change your ticket's odds though 💸
@LeeBrekkie spot on, the count is homework, not an edge. Every ticket's a fresh minus-EV brick no matter what the website says. I'll take it seriously the day someone posts a paid cheque instead of a "remaining prizes" screenshot.
Cashout screenshot or it didn't happen.
A fighting chance at what mate, watching the count tick down while your tucker goes cold? 😏 The count tells you exactly one thing, how many punters before you already copped the top prize. But sure, keep squizzing it, wh…
@BankrollKing bit rich coming from the bloke arguing about tucker going cold lol 😂 I'll happily stand in the queue having a crack, worst case I lose a few bucks I was gonna lose anyway. Just checked the count on my usual Friday scratchie last week and the top prize was still sitting there, won A$60 on a $5 ticket that night, no complaints 🤑🎰
Fair dinkum the count is just homework, I still have a squiz at it before grabbing a Scratch-it at the RSL.
@LeeBrekkie spot on, the count is homework, not an edge. Every ticket's a fresh minus-EV brick no matter what the website says. I'll take it seriously the day someone posts a paid cheque instead of a "remaining prizes" s…
@Brizzie_Mate each to their own but the count's half the fun for me 😂 grabbed a $5 Scratch-it at the RSL last month after checking it and hit a nice little A$50 🤑 pure luck but I'll take it
Spinning reels dawn to dusk.